Just a copy of a little thing I wrote for the betting fraternity, not intended to encourage any of you to gamble, just some info.
The 2015 Vuelta kicks off Saturday, 22nd August, with a very short stage 1 Team Time Trial.
Be extra cautious with your bets, especially match bets, as this stage has been neutralised from an individual time point of view.
The course has been deemed to be dangerous, to some degree, and unsuited to the particular discipline. So the stage will go ahead, but times will only count in the team classification, meaning that any riders "taking it easy" will start on Sunday with the same time as everyone else.
It seems that the racing surface is quite varied, but in some parts it's sand, and who could guess who will be able to get the most from their bikes on such a course. This could mean huge surprises; it could mean some riders, with nothing to gain or lose, will simply be playing safe. Equally we might see some squads finding themselves going particularly and unexpectedly well. Such a surface has never been raced on in the modern pro era, so it's guesswork. For my own part I'd expect it may suit a team loaded with the classics men who can time trial as well. We'll see, I'd consider myself to be reckless if I tried to point you towards a winner.
I expect that it will remain entertaining, and as usual I wish you luck.
Stage 2's contribution.
Stage 2 is a typically rolling day in Spain. The sprinters can't win, as the finish is up a 3+ km climb at just over 7%. All of the riders can climb this, but only a handful pack the punch to win it. I doubt that a breakaway will be allowed to stick at this early stage, so i suspect the main contenders will arrive together, and with Valverde starting as fav. for the stage win, and it suits him well, the G.C. guys won't be far away, so the sprinters won't be able to stay with them to the finish atop the climb. Chris Froome will be close at hand, but I doubt it's tough enough for him to get away. Valverde has the sprint finish, so does Dan Martin, and so does Simon Gerrans, although we can't be certain of his form. Martin and Gerrans are both priced at big odds with bet365, most books haven't opened at time of writing. I'm interested to see how Dombrowski fares on such a punchy climb, following a report that he rode it very fast on friday.
ohhh just turned the race on and there was a terrible crash, I can imagine a few might be pulling out after that
Stage 3 is predicted to finish in a bunch sprint, but nothing's for sure in Spain.
today's copy:
Well deserved win for Orica on stage 2, always a popular team. That climb looked somewhat steeper, in parts, than I was led to believe. Movistar tried to work the old one two, with Quintana hoping to draw out the main protagonists and set them up for Valverde's punch, but no one took the bait. Good win for Chaves, Dan Martin too late on the scene yet again.
Tomorrow sees the first cat.1 climb, but it's a long way from the finish. The sprint teams ought to be able to close it down and fight out the finish. Bouhanni's the fastest man here, so I've had a little bit of the 11/4 with bet365.
Only fair to mention that Bouhanni was on the floor in stage 2, but he claims to be feeling fine. If he's not at 100% then John Dagenkolb is the next best sprinter here, and he does have a really good lead out team. Lets hope they all get through unscathed this time.
In reply to Sandy', there were three non finishers, including the Lampre and the IAM riders we saw on the floor. IAM later lost another sprinter in a subsequent crash. Then Vincenzo Nibali, himself a victim of the crash, was thrown off the race for holding on to his team car while being helped back to the peleton.
today's copy
Great ride by, and well deserved win for, Sagan and Tinkoff Saxo. Bouhanni rode well considering he has to keep scraping himself off the floor; Dagenkolb looked to be just a bit short of his best.
Different day on tuesday; bookmakers have Sagan as favorite, but that won't happen, way too steep a finale for him to keep up with the climbers, and I can't see him joining the breakaway, who just might just be permitted to go for it, but I kinda doubt it. Quite a long stage, around 209 km I think, and rolling countryside for much of it, then a flatish coastal run until the finale which kicks up at around 10-12%, (if the road book is accurate, it's notoriously not so in Spanish races) followed by false flat, slight dip, then kicks up again to the line. Suited to the same riders as was stage 2, but there are more riders out of contention now, so they might be given the freedom to attack early. I like Valverde again, but of course things need to drop right, and there are numerous climbers who could take the win. Dan Martin will once again fancy this stage, and so will the Katusha pair of Danny Moreno and Purito Rodriguez. Much will depend upon the make up of the breakaway, and then as to how it's controlled, but Orica will be working to control who gets away; they'll be less concerned about reeling them in, unless there's a threat to the jersey.
Well a confident ride and a great win for Valverde, and Peter Sagan almost made me eat my words, although he did look to be on the limit, great ride nonetheless. Always dangerous if he's allowed to hang in there, but none of the G.C. boys seemed to want to commit on the early ramps.
If Peter Sagan could have designed a finish best suited too his talents, it would probably closely resemble the finish of stage 5. The final 700m rise at around 4 or 5%. The earlier part of the stage, however, is too easy to thin the peleton, so barring mishaps everyone should arrive, at a very fast pace, in a huge bunch going under the Flamme Rouge. It gets a little bit more difficult to handle from there, which will only make the pace even more manic.
I suspect that lead out trains will be gone by the final 400 metres, and it will be pretty much every man for himself to fight for the win in an uphill bunch sprint.
Sagan starts as favourite this time, with Dagenkolb a 4/1 chance, and the form book points to these two as the most likely winners. Positioning will be of the utmost importance here, and Sagan is certainly the man who is a master in that department, but this isn't a two horse race. I think Bouhanni will still be recovering from his crashes, and the uphill finish, although he climbs well enough, will offset his superior speed. Jempey Drucker, 33/1 with William Hill, is in top form at the moment, and this finish suits him well too. There has been money and positive reports for the Caja Rural sprinter Carlos Barbero, still a best priced 33/1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes. Kris Boekmans, 66/1 with bet365 and others, is another who can get involved in such a finish.
I think the favs will probably fight out this one, and I like Drucker to get in the mix but, if the road book is inaccurate and gradients are steeper, or if people get caught out of position and lose wheels, don't be surprised to see Valverde and Gerrans near the front at the line.
I've often overlooked Movistar's sprinter, Jose Joachin Rojas Gil, as he is often overshadowed by Valverde and co.
Rojas Gil has been around for a while, and at his best he has often featured in bunch sprint finishes in grand tours. He's never been the best at positioning himself, but this finish would suit him perfectly, and he is fast enough to compete with these boys if things drop right for him.
Please excuse the betting references, as this copy is written specifically for the betting community, but neverthe less I trust it will be informative.
Well I missed Caleb Ewan, and he did it well, but I was unconvinced as to his condition. Otherwise we'd called the next four home, even though Rojas got out of position, so it's encouraging enough, even if I'm not banking today.
Stage 6 should pretty much suit the same riders as stage 2 and 4, but there is a possibility of a strong breakaway making it this time.
Tom Dumoulin managed to get a small gap on Chaves, and now the Giant rider is in the leaders jersey. That means that Giant will try to control the make up of the break, but that will be difficult. Dumoulin probably has a better chance of keeping the Jersey if a non threatening breakaway stays away. As the race takes shape it's likely that Cannondale will want to help bring it back for Dan Martin to have a go, and he's a serious contender on this finish, along with Danny Moreno of Katusha.
The main G.C. contenders, if it comes back together, are also going to get involved in the finish, with Valverde once again a worthy favourite, but 9/4 in a stage like this is no value; furthermore, with big mountain stages ahead, they are less likely to help bring it back so long as they see no threat to the overall.
I've had a little bet on Allesandro Di Marchi, 200/1 with Coral, and on Dombrowski, 150/1 with bet365, and if either get in the break they are among several riders with the ability to bring it home. Of course that comment applies to a number of riders, and we all have our personal favourites.
Well done Chaves, once again; I have him noted as a possible stage winner, and keep overlooking him because I've doubted
these hills would be steep enough for him to make it stick.
Incidentally, I also have L.L. Sanchez listed as a stage winner, but
that's likely scuppered due to reduced numbers in the squad.
With Gautier in yesterday's break it was never going to be let off the leash, perhaps today will be different.
Traditionally the first mountain top finish (yes it is officially the
first real climbing of the race) is won by the G.C. men, and often by
Chris Froome when he looks to impose himself on a race. Thus far the
principals seem to prefer to monitor each other, and seem unwilling to
show their hand at present, or risk exposing any weaknesses. This is
where Astana would have been expected to test everyone, but with Nibali
and, perhaps more importantly, Tiralonga out of the race, they are
themselves in a vulnerable position too early in the contest.
I think the way is open for an in form climber to take advantage, either
by joining the right breakaway, or by making a move while the big guns
watch each other. The heat is likely to take it's toll today.
Todays final climb isn't a severe test, so a strong rider such as
Hanson, or Di Marchi, could prevail from a break, but most likely it
will be one of the many climbers who takes the win.
I like the look of Dombrowski for this, generally 66/1, and I particularly like Henao, also 66/1, and well capable of riding away on such a climb.
In a race packed with climbing talent there are too many possibilities
to mention, and tactics will come into play for sure. MTN Quebeka are
loaded with stage hunters, and Meintjes is well capable of challenging
here. Berhane is always likely to get into a breakaway, and he is
capable of getting a result from such a break.
Enjoy the day.
I hope some of you picked up on Lindeman, who was, goodness knows why, the outsider in the break, and available at 25's to 50's on the exchanges for much of the final 60 kilometres.
Stage 8 is another day, and the G.C. riders only wish to stay safe today. With a nigh pan flat run in the sprinters will fancy this, but that's not the full story. The climb, after a mostly downhill stage, is taken twice on a circuit, but it's not an easy climb, and most sprinters won't hang in there when the pace is cranked up. It's not terribly long, but it's steep enough to make a selection. Giant will look to keep the break in check, unless they send someone up the road; the same remark applies to Orica, for whom Gerrans would be well suited to this stage.
Peter Sagan will be favourite, and rightly so, but he was at his limit two days ago, and he's also not the fastest on a flat sprint, so we're trusting him to get into a reduced bunch, and I think it will be a reduced bunch which fights out this finish.
For the breakaway, or a late break even, Sylvan Chavanel could go well; so could Luis Leon Sanchez, but I suspect he'll be kept in check by team duties. I like Julien Simon for this; he climbs well, he's in great condition, and he packs a fast sprint finish. He wouldn't beat Dagenkolb in a regular sprint, but there's a fair chance the sprinters won't be around after the climb.
good luck.
(explanation on Lindeman quote)
published during the stage:
Not at halfway yet, but the 5 man break has almost 10 minutes.
Lindeman is there once again, and he's much better suited to this test than his previous sortes. Last year he won the big mountain stage in Tour de L'Ain, beating Romain Bardet, Dan Martin, and Jean Christophe Peraud et al.
todays column:
Well more drama than we needed today, and several riders retired injured. Peter Sagan suffered minor injuries when one of the neutral service motorcycles knocked him off his bike, and at a time when he would have been considered the most likely winner of the bunch sprint which was to follow.
Stage 9 follows a now familiar pattern, with a fairly flat day leading to a stiff climb, taken twice on a final circuit, the final climb is to the finish line.
In Spain, when the road book says it's a tough climb, you can be sure it is a really tough climb. Just over 4km in length, (slightly less first time) but classed as a cat 1 climb. Sections reported to be 19% for 500 metres, and shorter ramps in excess of 25%. On the 9th day of racing in the heat, this will cause problems for a number of riders.
There is always a chance of a strong breakaway going all the way, as most of the big guns seem happy to watch each other. For breakaway candidates, there are countless riders, all capable climbers, who could fancy giving it a go. On the other hand, these stages offer opportunities best suited to the favourites such as Purito and Moreno, and Valverde too. Of course Chaves, riding as he is, cannot be discounted from trying his hand again, but Orica won't ride hard to bring the break back. Caja Rural has two in form punchy climbers, Concalvez and Bilbao, who have been getting involved in these finishes, and it would be folly to discount them from giving it a go yet again, and it only takes that bit of luck, to make a move while others watch each other, and the race can be won. Meintjes is another rider who's going well, and he's just waiting to grab a chance at a stage win.
This stage is perfect for Rodriguez, although he's yet to show his best form this season, and seemed to fade towards the end of the tour.
I think Pozzovivo is well suited to this finale and, if it's brought back together, he could win this one, and 25/1 with Paddy Power makes him a value bet.
stage 10, and thank goodness it's a rest day tomorrow.
today's copy:
Well Pozzovivo didn't quite have the form for us yesterday, but what a spectacular performance from Tom Dumoulin, and a solid effort by Chris Froome too.
Today, the stage is perfect for a strong breakaway, and the G.C. men will hope a break goes early, and it ought to, and stays away. That being obvious means that there will be some 50 or so riders trying to get into said break, including some from the teams of the big players.
Giant are likely to want to control things in order to give Dagenkolb a chance, and he'd be hard to beat if arriving with the bunch. However, if it does come back together, then it's not certain Dagenkolb will have made the cut, and I'd favour Julien Simon, who just missed out two days ago when he was trapped behind a wall of riders in the sprint.
It's a short stage, but the first climb comes early, and will sort out who's in the break, then it rolls to a flat section, then the final climb, less than 25km from the finish. The climb, if we trust the description, isn't very hard, but the strong men and the climbers won't be waiting for the sprinters, and it's tough enough to make a difference. 7km up, then 10km down, then about 8km to the line.
It's very difficult to have a confident choice for this stage, particularly since we think a break might win. The break may last out and then contest the finish from a bunch, or someone might escape the bunch and take a solo victory. Then again, if some teams miss out on the break and decide to help keep it in check, then we might see the bigger bunch arrive together, but not before numerous attacks off the front. Even the final 2km are technical enough for a rider to try to escape for a solo win. Riders like Terpstra, though not a strong climber, Adam Hanson, and Ruben Plaza, and Sylvan Chavanel, are all likely to want to be involved. Hanson is immensely popular, and rightly so, but that means his odds are usually shorter than they ought to be.
I think that, whatever happens, Orica will want to get someone in the break, and I'm favouring Daryl Impey, but that's purely a guess. Gerrans could be well suited to this stage, but we are still waiting to see a return to form. Stephen Cummings has promised to try to get into another break, and I expect him to try really hard to get into this one, and he's certainly on my shortlist as a possible winner. I expect Movistar, Sky, and Tinkoff Saxo to try to get a rider in the break too, but too much guesswork as to who it might be.
Astana are missing two of their captains, in Nibali, and more importantly Tiralongo, who would have carried the workload through the difficult mountain stages. This has limited the opportunities for others to shine, but, with a rest day tomorrow, and Luis Leon Sanchez riding at his highest level for some time, I think the Spaniard might be allowed to go for this one. You'll have to think back quite some way to remember his best performances, and for a couple of seasons he hasn't shown much at all, but at his best he's a formidable competitor. If I was just to pick one for the stage, Luis Leon Sanchez would be the man.
Another exciting stage awaits, enjoy.
today's copy:
The first rest day, long overdue, and time to reflect upon what's already happened.
Firstly, stage 10, almost going to plan, but not quite. Too many riders in the break first of all, but why was Henao there? Sky had two strong riders in the break, Pucchio and Boswell, holding a sporting chance of getting a result, but with Henao sitting just 3 minutes down in the G.C. it just wasn't going to happen. It's not that the break isn't strong enough to stay out front, it's that the other riders, from Astana, BMC, Orica, Movistar, Tinkoff Saxo, and others, are just not going to help him to gain an advantage on their own G.C. contenders. That being the case we then find the other half of the break less than willing to give everyone else a free ride, so the breakaway is doomed unless Henao sits up.
I've puzzled as to find any logic in the move, but all I could come up with was that Navarro, from Cofidis, was just two minutes down on him, but that's a weak argument at this stage of the tour. In the end Henao suffered a mishap, after the catch was made, and lost over 10 minutes.
Tom Dumoulin leads by almost a minute, but he can't go through the high mountains, in the days ahead, and keep up with the pure climbers. He's a potential world champion time trialist, and he can expect to gain quite a bit of time in the ITT later on, but I doubt he'll be able to stay close enough to have a shot at the podium.
Aru is now the clear leader for Astana, and he's showing good form. In past tours, with less expected of him perhaps, Aru has always had at least one bad, or let's say a below par, day. He is very strong and tends to finish a tour well, but much may depend upon whether his own time trial holds up. He's also going to miss having Tiralongo there, softening up the opposition.
Movistar are still claiming to have two leaders, have Quintana riding strong, but not showing his real sparkle yet, although we haven't really got to the big climbs thus far, and I suspect he's been just hanging in there up until now.
Valverde is their other "leader", though I suspect the veteran's weaknesses, of which there aren't many, will become apparent over the next week. Valverde is less suited by the long hard climbs which best suit Quintana, and Froome. He does keep going though, and that's his strength.
Froome has played down his chances, but he seems to be very near his top level, and the longer and harder climbing days ahead suit him well. He's also the better time trialist among the climbers. If anyone wants to take time from Froome they'll have to ride away from him on the climbs.
Whether that will be possible remains to be seen.
Purito Rodriguez has never quite made it to the top step on a grand tour, and, as much as we love him, I think it's unlikely to get any better from here. The steep Spanish climbs suit him well, but overall he has continually come up short, and his recent form is not as good as it once was. Add to that his well publicised weakness in the time trial and you can see that it's going to be difficult for Purito to get on the podium.
Rafal Majka is riding well, and seems to have prepared well for this challenge. Majka has always been just below the level of the very best riders, but he is still young, and getting stronger all the time. So far we haven't seen a performance from him which will beat the best, but I suspect the best is yet to come, and I think a podium place certainly isn't out of the question.
Chaves has had a wonderful tour, and this young man is a real talent. Whether he can hold up for the remainder of the tour remains to be seen. He is a pure climber, I think it's his stamina which will be called to question. If he holds up, who knows, he's very close to the top step, and on a good day he's hard to beat.
Nicolas Roche has been riding tremendously well, as is often the case here at La Vuelta, and he's sitting 4th at the moment. I suspect that, when the battles in the high mountains commence, Roche will be ready to sacrifice himself for his captain, and that will put paid to his podium chances. I'd love to be wrong, and Sky have other men to call upon, but that's how I see it going.
Can anyone else possibly make the podium? Well there's a long way to go yet, and there are a number of good riders very close at hand.
Sammy Sanchez could refind the form which saw him on podiums in the past, and Danny Moreno is often close by. Realistically I think the only other rider, following Henao's ill fate yesterday, who can possibly make the podium, is Pozzovivo. He hasn't shown enough yet, but he just could be getting stronger as the race goes on, and he arrives fresher than most. I don't think he'll make it, but you never know.
The week ahead will reveal all.
Stage 11 could change the whole perspective of this contest. This is regarded as the hardest day ever in a modern day grand tour. Not long in km's, but non stop climbing and descending, then to make matters worse, it's forecast to rain all day.
In spite of it being the stage it is, there is a strong consensus of opinion which says the strong breakaway might prevail, but only the strongest and the best climbers have a chance.
The steep climbs suit the Columbians, like Torres, Atapuma, and Duarte. The wet weather doesn't suit them though, and coming off some of these climbs in the wet could cause problems.
My main reason for posting early was that I noticed Mikel Landa on offer at 40/1 with Corals, and that's a huge price for the strongest climber in the peleton. He may not have shown any form thus far, in this contest, but he's way out of the G.C., and nobody will care if he joins the breakaway. If Landa gets into the breakaway then I very much doubt there's anyone to beat him. So it's really just a case of whether or not Astana will give him the go ahead.
Goint to tweet to "Vino" now, tell him what I think.
this is a follow on post.
I think that Sky's Kyrienka is well capable of joining a breakaway and winning this stage, especially in the forecast wet conditions. It's also true that Henao is capable of doing something similar. Team instructions will determine where that's going.
AG2R's Blel Khadri suffered a bad accident early in the season and hasn't had an opportunity to prove his well being so far. Khadri prefers cooler conditions, and he's capable of going long on a big climbing stage. There's no current form to go on, but if he's in good fettle then he's certainly not a 200/1 chance for this.
If there's any certainty in this race, it's that Kenny Ellisonde will target a breakaway. Kenny's in good shape, and he climbs well, but he's a way short of the best, and his odds, generally, are not too tempting. However, if he gets in the right break, he does have a chance of bringing it home one of these days.
Stage 12:
After today's big shake up, the main players can have a relatively easy day on stage 12.
Just one cat 2 climb at around km 50 of 173. There are some other smaller climbs, but they are said to be minor affairs. Always wise to expect worse than is declared when in Spain. The riders were fortunate enough to miss most of the rain so far, but there's still a chance of wet weather in the region, not likely to make a huge difference with a lengthy flatish finale.
Dagenkolb, despite not being at his best, just failed to get the win last time, and Giant will be keen to make amends. Fortunately for them, this doesn't look like a stage where a breakaway could survive unless it was a really strong group and, with many riders in recovery mode, it's unlikely to be a big group getting away. This should end in a bunch sprint, slightly uphill, and Dagenkolb is the most likely winner. There may be some Each Way value elsewhere, Drucker is one who springs to mind, and Sparagli will try his hand again. Danny Van Poppel might get involved this time too, but it's guesswork as to who's in good condition after the big mountain stage.
good luck.
copy of the "tweet" i sent to the Astana camp before yesterday's stage:
@Vinokourov189 wishing all the team well today. M. Landa may break some hearts on those climbs if he's let loose.
I'm losing track, but today is perfect for the breakaway, and I see the bookmakers have fast guys as favs.; can't see that happening.
My silly logic considered that Astana would control the break, and make sure that Luis Leon was in it. I wasn't planning to tweet them but, as they say "wtf", why not? I've had a small punt, and if I can influence the race in our favour (bit pompous to think I can), then why not give it a go ... so I'll probably send a "tweet" before the stage.
There are numerous candidates for a breakaway, and I can't see Giant, nor Astana, providing their man's in the break, closing this down. If there's ever a stage made for the breakaway then this is it.
I've been wrong before .. but I've had a little punt on Luis Leon Sanchez.
As a footnote, I also thought Sky were certain to put someone in the break, but there are going to be 40+ riders trying to join the break. I've favoured Kyrienka, but it could always be one of the others. I'm also fairly sure Steve Cummings will want to be involved too.
Stage 14:
Well I didn't see yesterday's winner coming, even after the breakaway was established, but a great ride by Lampre's man nevertheless.
Stage 14 isn't easy to call either. With a peleton laden with climbers, there just aren't many stages left for them, and once again there will be many looking to get into the breakaway, and there is a chance it'll make it to the finish, but just a chance.
The race hinges on two factors, in the main; firstly the top contenders know that they have to distance Tom Dumoulin before the time trial on stage 17, otherwise he wins this Vuelta. So, sticking with that for the moment, we just may see some collaboration between teams with a common interest, and they might attack on the penultimate climb, which is the hardest, but then there's almost 40km to go to the final, and less difficult, climb, so even staying away, after putting in an effort, isn't certain. I think, with Tiralonga absent, Astana will play cautiously, stay together, and attack on the final climb of the day, and that wouldn't usually be sufficient to reel in a strong breakaway.
What might keep the breakaway in check is the fight for top 10, even 20, places in the overall. Teams and riders, who have put in the effort thus far, aren't just going to allow someone to leapfrog them in the standings and do nothing about it. If there's any rider in the breakaway who's well placed overall, then the chase might come from teams not interested in the podium, and then of course everyone wants a shot at winning a stage, and this final climb isn't the hardest, those will come over the next two days.
So it's a bit of a pin sticker, as far as the winner's concerned. Obviously, if Landa was permitted to join the breakaway, then he'd be seriously difficult to beat, but I doubt that'll happen this time. Even so he may still be involved in the finale, but Aru would be the man they want to see on the podium. Whether or not Aru will go full gas up this incline will very much depend upon how well Dumoulin is going. There are tougher days to come, and keeping something in reserve could be crucial.
Someone like Atapuma could find this stage to his liking, and he's climbing well enough to get in the mix. Sky will target the breakaway once again, and I'd expect it to be Kyrienka's turn, but you never know.
I've had a small wager on Kyrienka, but those odds aren't generous for a rider who's targeting a breakaway which is, firstly highly likely to be too big, and secondly going to be packed with climbing talent and include some Columbians.
Good result for "in play" punters yesterday, with De Marchi the standout amongst his breakaway companions. We don't get to see the early part of the race, but the winner had 5 or 6 attempts to join a break before it finally stuck.
Many of the pure climbers are finding it difficult to get out of the pack when the pace has been so high and the roads so flat; you'll have seen young Louis Mentjes struggling to hold his place at times, when it's cranked up, on flat roads, and he's right up in the G.C..
Today promises to be much of the same, although there is some climbing en route to the final tough climb.
A breakaway has a chance once again, and once again it's pin sticking time. Sky are likely to want to join in again, but they are also considerate for the overall prospects of Nieve, and to a lesser extent Roche, who might himself attempt to get into a breakaway.
The G.C. has become more nervous than ever now, with the resurgance of Quintana. If Movistar feel that he and Valverde are up to it, then we might see a much more serious chase to the final climb.
It's impossible to tell whether Quintana can sustain his progress, and the lead seems a long way off, but he's still on offer at 5/2 to make the podium, and that's a distinct possibility.
I'm a big fan of Tom Dumoulain, but I think he loses some 30 seconds or so today, then tomorrow will see him drop off the podium. However, Dumoulin is capable of gaining 2 minutes on most of these riders in stage 17.
I'll be having a bet in play today, better guarantee of getting a run for your money; but I've also had a small wager on Zoidl at big odds.
good luck.
stage 16 promises to be the hardest of this contest for the riders. Whereas the ultra tough stage 11 was ridden, for the most part, rather conservatively, this promises to be ridden at a frantic pace. The race has taken shape now, and there are numerous very strong climbers out of contention and looking for that elusive stage win. Add to that, Purito wants bonus seconds, and all the G.C. squads want to distance Dumoulin, and you have a recipe for a fantastic contest.
The stage begins on a climb, so the pure climbers have a chance of making the break this time. Then it's up and down all day, but the really hard part is in the final 45km with three really tough climbs. Descending skills, or lack of them, could be a factor too. Fortunately, for the riders, the roads remain unusually dry.
The breakaway, if it's strong enough, might well stay away, but only the best climbers can succeed today because, although it will be both difficult to control, and there's a need to save energy for that finish, the pace over the final 50km will be really fast. Once again there will be numerous riders targetting the break, and it would be easy to list twenty or more names.
I can't really point to a selection today and claim to have any confidence. I've had a small wager on Henao, and on Dombrowski, but I can see lots of alternatives. I can't even say I have a strong fancy as to which of the G.C. men will come out on top today, so I'll watch with baited breath as the drama unfolds, and I might have a bet in play once again.
good luck.
The Individual Time Trial:
Tom Dumoulain is around 2 minutes off the lead in La Vuelta, and he's odds on fav., and one of the best time trialers in the world. To be honest I thought he'd be some 5 or 6 minutes down after Monday's mountain stage, but it seems he's holding up better than most of his opposition.
Dumoulin is odds on with the bookmakers to win this stage, but it's not a formality, although there are only a handful of riders who might get the better of him, even if he is suffering some fatigue. Kyrienka would usually be some 18 to 30 seconds behind him, and Louis Leon Sanches a further few seconds back. Bodnar and Nikki Terpstra are another two who can put in a stirling effort at times too, as is Oliveira, and these boys will have been taking things much easier than Dumoulin these past few days.
Those challenging for the podium place are only fair at best, and will give it their all, but staying ahead of Dumoulin on this very flat course will require a career best performance from each and every one of them.
Thank you skinny. Your insight into La Vuelta makes interesting reading.
Your knowledge and enthusiasm shine through.
Dumoulin now leads Aru by 3 seconds.
Unless Movistar are set on giving Valverde a shot at this stage then it's almost sure to be won from a breakaway. For the podium hopefuls to bring Dumoulin to the line, on this downhill finish, would be too risky, since he's a good descender , and he's fast in a sprint, so he might finish up with bonus seconds too. It's likely that a strong breakaway will go clear, then Astana will go as fast as they can up the final climb, just in the hope that Tom Dumoulin's wheels come off.
Movistar and Sky, both fighting for the team prize, are likely to want a rider in the breakaway.
I've had a little bet on Stephen Cummings once again, but it's really a case of seeing if there's any value in your personal favourite. If you wish to have a more serious punt, then betting in play is the preferred option.
Stage 19 is yet another day which is perfect for the breakaway to take the win. Just as was the case yesterday, there will be some 40+ riders trying to make it into that group, and yet again Sky and Movistar will almost surely get a man in the break.
Ordinarily, in a grand tour, we wouldn't see riders in the break on consecutive days, but for many riders, those who climb less well and can't match the pure sprinters, this is their last chance of a stage win. Once again there is a relatively flat start, so the pace will be frantic, meaning the stronger riders have an advantage insofar as making the break is concerned. I was thinking of Hanson, Concalves and Serry when I mentioned "consecutive days", this stage has less climbing, and would suit each better.
Visconti tried, but failed, to make the cut yesterday; he can be relied upon to try again today, but 14/1 for someone you hope makes it just isn't great value.
The other strong guys, Cummings, Kyrienka, Chavanel and Oliveira can all be expected to show further ambition today. Julien Simon will also fancy his chances, and would be amongst the fastest at the finish.
Orica have been taking care of Chaves, but may feel they could let a couple of men have a go at this stage. In Simon Gerrans, who must be keen to test his form ahead of the Worlds, they have a prime candidate. Gerrans has mainly been riding himself into condition, while at the same time assisting Chaves and others, and his condition has to be taken on trust, but few would beat him here at his best. Daryl Impey is another rider from Orica who could feature, and he has been riding well.
Once again, whether or not it comes together depends upon Movistar wanting to set up Valverde, but with a tough mountain stage to come on Saturday I expect them to try from the breakaway. Giant won't chase the break down, and these climbs aren't steep enough to put Dumoulin under pressure; in fact he is once again likely to feature should they regroup, and Astana don't want to give him the opportunity of bonus seconds.
A rider I expect to take a hand in this stage is Jerome Coppel, from IAM. Once considered a G.C. candidate, Coppel's form wained for some time, but he is at last showing something approaching his best. He has struggled on steeper climbs, but this course will suit him well, and he has that ability to ride away for a solo win if things fall into place.
Another rider perfectly capable of imposing himself on such a stage is Luis Leon Sanchez, but I rather think that Astana, having a reduced squad, will wish to keep him fresh to assist Aru on Saturday. Sanchez would have been my selection under different circumstances.
The end is almost in sight, at least for the G.C. candidates, and this is their final chance to make a difference.
For the climbers, this is the last opportunity to win a stage, and there will be plenty who still think they may have a chance. Whether or not the breakaway will succeed today very much depends upon how early the G.C. boys begin to test each other. Giant won't be interested, nor able, to control a break today, so it will be up to Astana and Movistar to take control.
Today's stage begins with a climb, meaning that the smaller guys have a chance of making the breakaway this time. The Columbians did well to get three riders in yesterday's break, but I'm not sure any of them have it left in them to win a stage now.
There are 4 cat.1 climbs today, then 4 descents to be dealt with too, the final one taking the riders to a sharp turn onto the uphill finish, which is around a furlong at 10%. It's impossible to think "downhill off a cat.1 and onto a short uphill sprint" without having Valverde in your mind. On paper this stage is perfect for him.
Movistar are locked in a battle with Sky for the team classification, and how they ride this will very much depend upon whether they sense they still have a possibility of getting a podium place; although unlikely, it's not impossible, and Quintana seems to be much better than he was a week ago. Rodriguez, Majka and Quintana will be monitoring each other closely.
I think, this time, it all comes back together, and the winner is going to be a climber who has been able to ride in with the main contenders. Someone who's not a threat to the red jersey might be able to get a gap over the last climb, then manage to hold on for the win. Dumoulin will just try to hang in there and, once the last climb is done with, he's as likely a candidate as anyone else. My own pick for the win is the Katusha rider, Danny Moreno, who is riding at the top of his form. It's always risky to bet on someone who's priority will be to assist his captain, and Rodriguez is also his close friend, but I think they both arrive safely at the finish, and Moreno has the sprint finish to land such a stage win.
Of course I won't be letting Dombrowski run without a small interest, but I've no idea how he's feeling right now; yesterday's ride was encouraging enough.
This is something which Joe Dombrowski, (you'll have heard me mention his name when mountains appeared) tweeted last week:
"Cycling is cruel. Objective: breakaway and go for stage. Reality: Crash at km 0, bash knee, go full up climb 1 and catch broom wagon on top."
Kind of lets you have an insight into what goes on in a bike race.
sorry, puter crashed midstream, and post was duplicated when I rejoined.
