It's all just about to kick off in Yorkshire and, in Chris Froome, we have a British favorite to win it yet again, we won't mention where he was born and brought up, just cheer him on eh.
I'll post just a snippet each day as long as someone keeps reading it.
I like to have a little wager on the cycling, and Froome's a worthy favorite to repeat last years success. However, this season hasn't been a smooth ride, and "Bertie" Contador at slightly bigger odds looks a solid option.
Stage 1, on Saturday, will see the riders, almost certainly, teeing up a bunch sprint finish. Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish are the two most likely contenders to win the stage and wear the yellow jersey after the opening day. No big odds here, around 5/2 each at best on the exchanges. Clear third best is Andre Greipel. Bunch sprints can get messy and chaotic, especially if it's wet, but these guys will win more between them than they lose.
More interesting days lie ahead.
The betting side would be more interesting if it was based on first retiree, first broken collar bone, first broken finger, first rider to chuck their £25000+ bike into the road cos they got a puncture at the wrong place, first rider to pull off a totally unexpected stage win from a breakaway that wasn't swept up.....now that the tour i've enjoyed watching for the last 30 years :bounce:
So stage 1 followed the script, for the main part, and Kittel's in the yellow jersey.
Stage 2 is a much different contest, expect fireworks throughout the day, and the winner will almost certainly wear the leader's jersey for the next few days.
Peter Sagan will start as favourite, and he's in great form. I just can't see, with so much up for grabs, that the guys who are able to really kick up that last hill, some parts are above 25%, will allow Sagan to stay on their tail, even assuming he's still with them at that point. Simon Gerrans would have been an obvious possibility, but he was in the crash on stage 1. I think the key lies with Cavendish's team, they have lots of contenders for a stage like this, and I'm sure Bakelants or Terpstra, Tony Martin or Michael Kwaitkowski will get involved and attempt to grab the jersey for the stable.
It would be easy to make a long list of possible winners on a stage like this, even some of the g.c. contenders could get involved. Tom Jelte Slagter is another for the shortlist too.
My personal choice would be Michael Albasini who might be capable of outsprinting a reduced bunch in the finish, although both Sylvain Chavanel and Fabian Cancellara will likely have a go at getting involved in the outcome.
well done to Nibali who outsmarted his rivals and skipped into a winning lead in the closing stages of stage 2. Obviously in good form today, let's hope he remains in top form for three weeks; that would make things more interesting when we get into the mountains.
Stage 3 looms, with a finish on The Mall which should again be won in a bunch sprint. Although there is some rain about, I don't see it having too much impact unless it's very windy further out. The g.c. riders will look to stay safe near the front, and Astana will keep it tight, with the help of the sprinter's teams, and retain the yellow jersey.
with Cavendish out of the race, Marcel Kittel will start at very cramped odds (too short for me to get involved) to win stage 3, and he does look the superior sprinter in the field now, with Greipel second best. I'm fairly confident that Kittel will win.
There will be an opportunity for the young sprinters to test their merits, with sufficient space on the run in for less well practiced leadout trains to get their man involved, so it's always interesting from that perspective, and as we know anything can happen in a bunch sprint, staying upright being the first concern.
Any wagers at big odds, on one of the time trialists or less popular sprinters, would be purely speculative, but it's a certainty that someone will give it a go from afar.
For my own purely speculative little wager I'll be having a quid on big Tony (Martin) to light things up, and on Peter Sagan's stablemate Elia Viviani to get involved in the scrimmage for the line. I'm influenced by the fact that odds of 100/1 and upwards are on offer.
get that shoulder taped up and get back in the race cavendish you pussy!!!
Stage 4, back in France, promises to be more of the same, namely the Marcel Kittel show. As before he'll be at very short odds, but he should win. Greipel, in spite of results, is still the second best sprinter in the field, and if big odds are offered then i would be tempted to play on Greipel. Otherwise it's the same as stage 3.
The real fireworks resume stage 5 on the cobblestones, and there is a chance it could be wet and windy.
