The Vuelta a Espana, Spain's equivalent to Le Tour de France, has just begun, and stage 2 takes place this afternoon.
I submitted a daily opinion during the Tour and wondered if anyone had an interest in reading similar contributions relating to the Vuelta. I'll be happy to write a snippet or so each day, and include my humble selection for the daily stage win, just so long as there's someone wishing to read it. So do please give me a nod if you wish me to continue.
Stage 2 is a day for the sprinters, which is standard fare in grand tours.
This is fairly straightforward, only the wind can cause trouble today, although for the win there's a very technical and fast finish.
Nacer Bouhanni is a worthy favorite, he's the fastest in the race, and is who I think will win this stage barring mishaps.
Classics riders like Cancellara and Gilbert, maybe Boonen too, are capable of jumping clear at the 880m mark and trying to hold on, but this is unlikely unless there's some disruption behind.
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Vuelta a Espana stage previews
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Sex God
Its a forum Mr Skinny, you post what you want. I love my cycling so i'll be happy but the forum needs some life and it will be better than the usual 'can't get a meet/people are so rude/shaved genitals/fuck,kiss,kill the person above' etc etc that i get on a certain forum elsewhere 
well thanks fer that meats, I'll bear, or is it bare, in mind if I choose to continue. Someone would prefer if I don't, but then they don't need to read it. I will write if any one person tells me they wish to hear my opinion, and of course I'm passionate about this sport, therefore I'd love an excuse to share my opinion. It's also true that I'm likely to point readers to a stage winner at humungous odds. (only relevant to those among us who like a wager)
I don't advise betting, but I might advise where best odds might be found.
And just by the way, Nacer Bouhanni won stage 2 ... told ya!
I don't advise betting, but I might advise where best odds might be found.
And just by the way, Nacer Bouhanni won stage 2 ... told ya!
Stage 3 is a bit of a toin coss insofar as the winner's concerned. It's a very interesting stage, with a few category 3 climbs, and a quite significant (around 6%) ramp leading to the final and level finish.
The favorites for the stage win, with the bookmakers, are the sprinters who can climb a bit, and I'd be foolish to say they can't win. (Dagenkolb, Mathews and Sagan are among those favs.)
I think that the G.C. guys will make a move on the final ascent, and Valverdi is a prime candidate, but there is so much up for grabs that I think it will be hotly contested. Phillipe Gilbert, who is among the favorites, is in good shape and is well suited to this sort of contest. So is Cancellara and Tom Boonen, the latter having shown some ambition in the previous stage.
If Carlos Bettancour is in good enough shape, and much would have to be taken on trust, then he is equal to winning such a stage.
I've had a quid on Boonen at 100/1 with Ladbrokes, but I tend to be influenced by big odds, so don't think this is based on knowledge.
The favorites for the stage win, with the bookmakers, are the sprinters who can climb a bit, and I'd be foolish to say they can't win. (Dagenkolb, Mathews and Sagan are among those favs.)
I think that the G.C. guys will make a move on the final ascent, and Valverdi is a prime candidate, but there is so much up for grabs that I think it will be hotly contested. Phillipe Gilbert, who is among the favorites, is in good shape and is well suited to this sort of contest. So is Cancellara and Tom Boonen, the latter having shown some ambition in the previous stage.
If Carlos Bettancour is in good enough shape, and much would have to be taken on trust, then he is equal to winning such a stage.
I've had a quid on Boonen at 100/1 with Ladbrokes, but I tend to be influenced by big odds, so don't think this is based on knowledge.
Sex God
Write away, I don't always get the time to watch- or my piss poor memory gets distracted, so I'll at read it.
After watching le tour since it was just a 30 minute highlights show with phil ligget commentating by phone, I'm determined to go and watch a few stages of a grand tour when I get my camper van :mrgreen:
After watching le tour since it was just a 30 minute highlights show with phil ligget commentating by phone, I'm determined to go and watch a few stages of a grand tour when I get my camper van :mrgreen:
Michael Mathews was too fast for the climbers on stage 3.
Stage 4 is another hilly affair, at least the latter part of it is, but it should come down to a bunch sprint. The bookmakers have Bouhanni as favorite, but personally I don't think he'll manage to get back into the front group after the final climb. That leaves Dagenkolb as the likely winner. Mathews, of course, won't have any trouble with the hills, and is at the top of his game.
The stages begin to get more interesting as some of the strong riders allow themselves to lose time, thereby being no threat to the overall contenders, and therefore unlikely to be chased by them if they get in the morning breakaway. Nevertheless, with limited opportunities for the sprinters, it's likely that Orica Green Edge and Giant Shimano will keep a tight rein on the morning breakaway in this stage.
I think Dagenkolb will prevail this time.
Stage 4 is another hilly affair, at least the latter part of it is, but it should come down to a bunch sprint. The bookmakers have Bouhanni as favorite, but personally I don't think he'll manage to get back into the front group after the final climb. That leaves Dagenkolb as the likely winner. Mathews, of course, won't have any trouble with the hills, and is at the top of his game.
The stages begin to get more interesting as some of the strong riders allow themselves to lose time, thereby being no threat to the overall contenders, and therefore unlikely to be chased by them if they get in the morning breakaway. Nevertheless, with limited opportunities for the sprinters, it's likely that Orica Green Edge and Giant Shimano will keep a tight rein on the morning breakaway in this stage.
I think Dagenkolb will prevail this time.
Orgasminator
Quote by skinny
Michael Mathews was too fast for the climbers on stage 3.
Stage 4 is another hilly affair, at least the latter part of it is, but it should come down to a bunch sprint. The bookmakers have Bouhanni as favorite, but personally I don't think he'll manage to get back into the front group after the final climb. That leaves Dagenkolb as the likely winner. Mathews, of course, won't have any trouble with the hills, and is at the top of his game.
The stages begin to get more interesting as some of the strong riders allow themselves to lose time, thereby being no threat to the overall contenders, and therefore unlikely to be chased by them if they get in the morning breakaway. Nevertheless, with limited opportunities for the sprinters, it's likely that Orica Green Edge and Giant Shimano will keep a tight rein on the morning breakaway in this stage.
I think Dagenkolb will prevail this time.
Spot on skinny, I hope that you had a punt on him?
Stage 5 is listed as a flat stage, but there isn't really such a thing in the Vuelta. There's a steady cat.3 climb for around 13km from around 35km out, then slightly downhill until the final km which is slightly uphill, but not enough to stop the fast guys. That cat 3 climb however, only listed as having around a 3% gradient, will take it's toll, and if there's something to know about this race it's this, the hill will be steeper in parts than it says in the book.
I predict that the sprinters teams will keep the race in check once again, thereby giving their guys a shot at the win. If Bouhanni does sail up the hill there's nobody to match him for speed in a straightforward run in. I don't see it that way, although I have been wrong before :sad: I'm with Dagenkolb, yet again, to win in the bunch sprint, which will have more contenders this time. There are also a couple of strong riders prepared to try a solo ride from afar, which should spice things up.
Ciolek is quite fast for MTN Quebeca, but he seems to be out of sorts, which might leave the way clear for Sbaragli to pick up the baton and have a go, and he could be chasing one of the places. Another outsider who's capable of hanging with the favorites is Francesca Lasca.
I predict that the sprinters teams will keep the race in check once again, thereby giving their guys a shot at the win. If Bouhanni does sail up the hill there's nobody to match him for speed in a straightforward run in. I don't see it that way, although I have been wrong before :sad: I'm with Dagenkolb, yet again, to win in the bunch sprint, which will have more contenders this time. There are also a couple of strong riders prepared to try a solo ride from afar, which should spice things up.
Ciolek is quite fast for MTN Quebeca, but he seems to be out of sorts, which might leave the way clear for Sbaragli to pick up the baton and have a go, and he could be chasing one of the places. Another outsider who's capable of hanging with the favorites is Francesca Lasca.
Orgasminator
Quote by skinny
Stage 5 is listed as a flat stage, but there isn't really such a thing in the Vuelta. There's a steady cat.3 climb for around 13km from around 35km out, then slightly downhill until the final km which is slightly uphill, but not enough to stop the fast guys. That cat 3 climb however, only listed as having around a 3% gradient, will take it's toll, and if there's something to know about this race it's this, the hill will be steeper in parts than it says in the book.
I predict that the sprinters teams will keep the race in check once again, thereby giving their guys a shot at the win. If Bouhanni does sail up the hill there's nobody to match him for speed in a straightforward run in. I don't see it that way, although I have been wrong before :sad: I'm with Dagenkolb, yet again, to win in the bunch sprint, which will have more contenders this time. There are also a couple of strong riders prepared to try a solo ride from afar, which should spice things up.
Ciolek is quite fast for MTN Quebeca, but he seems to be out of sorts, which might leave the way clear for Sbaragli to pick up the baton and have a go, and he could be chasing one of the places. Another outsider who's capable of hanging with the favorites is Francesca Lasca.
Bang on again skinny!
Stage 6 sees the race head for the first mountain top finish. Although it would seem like a morning breakaway could be cut loose by the favorites, I suspect that Katousha will be keen to deliver their leader, "Purito" Rodriguez, to be in a position to win this stage. This will mean a very fast pace for most of the day, and many riders will suffer.
Purito is one of the best riders in the world on a steep finale such as we have here. In fact his friend and team mate Dani Moreno is also very capable on such a finish, but there are 10 second bonuses for stage winners, therefore they'll be hoping Rodriguez is able to take them. Irishman Dan Martin, who seems to be in good form, is another rider likely to get in the mix.
This race, of course, is full of talented riders, and none of the main contenders are going to roll over without a fight. Chris Froome and Alberto Contador are both here having suffered fairly serious injuries in the Tour, and therefore I expect them to be staying close to the action rather than mixing it up with those fighting for the stage honours. It isn't actually in the nature of either of these men to take a back seat mind you, but I suspect that common sense will prevail and they'll try to ride themselves into peak condition before engaging in the battles. Moviestar have 2 riders who will definitely seek to get involved, namely Valverde, who can be suited by such a finish, and race favorite Nairo Quintana, hailed as the best climber in the world of cycling. If I had to make a pick for the winner I'd be rather boring and say Rodriguez has to be my choice, but at around 2/1 with the bookmakers, on a stage like this, I'd probably seek a bit of value for a small stake. A couple of young riders who could be allowed a little leeway are Fabio Aru and Warren Barguil, at around 50/1 and 100/1 respectively they might raise excitement levels if they get a jump on the favs. Dan Martin's also available at 6/1, which is probably fair enough.
Purito is one of the best riders in the world on a steep finale such as we have here. In fact his friend and team mate Dani Moreno is also very capable on such a finish, but there are 10 second bonuses for stage winners, therefore they'll be hoping Rodriguez is able to take them. Irishman Dan Martin, who seems to be in good form, is another rider likely to get in the mix.
This race, of course, is full of talented riders, and none of the main contenders are going to roll over without a fight. Chris Froome and Alberto Contador are both here having suffered fairly serious injuries in the Tour, and therefore I expect them to be staying close to the action rather than mixing it up with those fighting for the stage honours. It isn't actually in the nature of either of these men to take a back seat mind you, but I suspect that common sense will prevail and they'll try to ride themselves into peak condition before engaging in the battles. Moviestar have 2 riders who will definitely seek to get involved, namely Valverde, who can be suited by such a finish, and race favorite Nairo Quintana, hailed as the best climber in the world of cycling. If I had to make a pick for the winner I'd be rather boring and say Rodriguez has to be my choice, but at around 2/1 with the bookmakers, on a stage like this, I'd probably seek a bit of value for a small stake. A couple of young riders who could be allowed a little leeway are Fabio Aru and Warren Barguil, at around 50/1 and 100/1 respectively they might raise excitement levels if they get a jump on the favs. Dan Martin's also available at 6/1, which is probably fair enough.
Well stage 6 was quite revealing. Valverde taking the win from the two "wounded" riders, Froome and Contador. Froome is once again favorite for the overall win, but there's a long way to go yet. Rodriguez claimed that the heat found him out, but it looked awfully much like he kicked too early, and to herald what I said during the tour, "no one is likely to outsprint Valverde on top of a mountain."
Stage 7 is the most open stage of the race so far. It does have "breakaway" written all over it. This means that the early part of the race will be quite manic, as 30 plus riders attempt to get into the breakaway. G.C. teams won't let anyone loose until they feel they're no threat overall, and then there might well be sprinter's teams, albeit an uphill drag to the finish, who fancy keeping control of things in order to give their guys a shot.
The bookmakers have Orica's "uphill sprinter" Michael Mathews as favorite, and why not after his performance on stage 3. If it should come to a bunch sprint then Mathews, Gilbert, and maybe Dagenkolb too will all be likely to figure.
I think that Orica Green Edge, who also have Chaves well up the G.C., will want to have someone in the breakaway, and Adam Yates is a prime candidate; he climbs well, he's in good form, and he's fast enough in a finish to win from a breakaway. He's huge odds for a reason of course, getting into the break is a gamble, then being allowed a soft lead is another. Then, as I said earlier there are numerous riders looking to target such a stage; I'll nominate those who appeal as most likely to me. Adam Yates, Tony Martin, Paul Martens, Luis Leon Sanchez, Bob Jungels, and maybe Wout Pouels.... but that's just some of those appearing likely. It's worth bearing in mind that Peter Sagan tried to join the breakaway on stage 6.
There will be easier stages to predict over the next few days, but this should be fun to watch.
Stage 7 is the most open stage of the race so far. It does have "breakaway" written all over it. This means that the early part of the race will be quite manic, as 30 plus riders attempt to get into the breakaway. G.C. teams won't let anyone loose until they feel they're no threat overall, and then there might well be sprinter's teams, albeit an uphill drag to the finish, who fancy keeping control of things in order to give their guys a shot.
The bookmakers have Orica's "uphill sprinter" Michael Mathews as favorite, and why not after his performance on stage 3. If it should come to a bunch sprint then Mathews, Gilbert, and maybe Dagenkolb too will all be likely to figure.
I think that Orica Green Edge, who also have Chaves well up the G.C., will want to have someone in the breakaway, and Adam Yates is a prime candidate; he climbs well, he's in good form, and he's fast enough in a finish to win from a breakaway. He's huge odds for a reason of course, getting into the break is a gamble, then being allowed a soft lead is another. Then, as I said earlier there are numerous riders looking to target such a stage; I'll nominate those who appeal as most likely to me. Adam Yates, Tony Martin, Paul Martens, Luis Leon Sanchez, Bob Jungels, and maybe Wout Pouels.... but that's just some of those appearing likely. It's worth bearing in mind that Peter Sagan tried to join the breakaway on stage 6.
There will be easier stages to predict over the next few days, but this should be fun to watch.
Apologies for not presenting a bigger list of probables for stage 7's breakaway, the winner would certainly have made the dozen. While I'm thinking like this it's worth mentioning that those previously mentioned, as well as De Marchi, are likely to target later stages. So too is Kenny Ellisonde, Lloyd Mondory and Alexandr Kolobnev.
Back to stage 8:
The way I see stage 8 is that it will finish in a bunch sprint, and unless the peleton fall asleep and allow Tony Martin too big a lead I don't see any other scenario.
That then leaves me looking at only 3 further possibilities, and I'll nominate them with the least likely first.
No. 1 = The stage will be abandoned because of adverse weather conditions.
No. 2 = Nacer Bouhanni will fall of his bike and fail to reach the finish.
No. 3 = Nacer Bouhanni will win, because he's too fast for everyone else in the peleton.
I know it's very unoriginal, and he's an even money favorite, but I can only choose from what we have. Dagenkolb's probably strong enough to hold second but, bearing in mind that none of these teams have a top leadout train with them, then the places will certainly be sorted out in yet another scrimmage.
Back to stage 8:
The way I see stage 8 is that it will finish in a bunch sprint, and unless the peleton fall asleep and allow Tony Martin too big a lead I don't see any other scenario.
That then leaves me looking at only 3 further possibilities, and I'll nominate them with the least likely first.
No. 1 = The stage will be abandoned because of adverse weather conditions.
No. 2 = Nacer Bouhanni will fall of his bike and fail to reach the finish.
No. 3 = Nacer Bouhanni will win, because he's too fast for everyone else in the peleton.
I know it's very unoriginal, and he's an even money favorite, but I can only choose from what we have. Dagenkolb's probably strong enough to hold second but, bearing in mind that none of these teams have a top leadout train with them, then the places will certainly be sorted out in yet another scrimmage.
If stage 8 was more or less predictable, stage 9 is anything but.
Stage 9 is a mountain stage with a summit finish.
On the face of it, it would seem perfect for a breakaway winner, and perhaps that's how it will pan out. With that in mind I'm looking to the riders I mentioned for stage 6, and Adam Yates is the first one to appeal. Once again, however, there are numerous strong riders with ambition and ability enough to go and win this stage providing the race favorites allow them to do so. I also like Christophe Le Mevel and Ryder Hesjedal as possible candidates for a strong breakaway. Once again De Marchi might fancy it too. There are many others, but this quartet have proven form and ambition already this week.
If it comes down to the favorites then the finish, which levels off to just under 3% for the last Km. or so, is perfectly suited to Valverde's sprint finish. Expect Dan Martin to challenge this time too, but there's unlikely to be big gaps among the favorites. Cadel Evans, who has lost his place in the G.C. is capable on a climb like this, but I suspect him to ride for Sammy Sanchez rather than try to get into the break. It is possible too, that the favorites will allow someone from the peleton to go away on a late attack, provided that rider isn't a threat to the leaders of the race.
Lots of guesswork involved, but I'm hoping young Yates gets his chance this time, and he'll do for my shilling. (always possible, for anyone who likes a small wager, to have a punt during the contest, and when the breakaway has been established.)
nb. a cooler day expected, cloudy with rain expected to have cleared before the race.
Stage 9 is a mountain stage with a summit finish.
On the face of it, it would seem perfect for a breakaway winner, and perhaps that's how it will pan out. With that in mind I'm looking to the riders I mentioned for stage 6, and Adam Yates is the first one to appeal. Once again, however, there are numerous strong riders with ambition and ability enough to go and win this stage providing the race favorites allow them to do so. I also like Christophe Le Mevel and Ryder Hesjedal as possible candidates for a strong breakaway. Once again De Marchi might fancy it too. There are many others, but this quartet have proven form and ambition already this week.
If it comes down to the favorites then the finish, which levels off to just under 3% for the last Km. or so, is perfectly suited to Valverde's sprint finish. Expect Dan Martin to challenge this time too, but there's unlikely to be big gaps among the favorites. Cadel Evans, who has lost his place in the G.C. is capable on a climb like this, but I suspect him to ride for Sammy Sanchez rather than try to get into the break. It is possible too, that the favorites will allow someone from the peleton to go away on a late attack, provided that rider isn't a threat to the leaders of the race.
Lots of guesswork involved, but I'm hoping young Yates gets his chance this time, and he'll do for my shilling. (always possible, for anyone who likes a small wager, to have a punt during the contest, and when the breakaway has been established.)
nb. a cooler day expected, cloudy with rain expected to have cleared before the race.
The race resumes Tuesday with the individual time trial, over a course of just over 36km.. The stage begins with a steady climb for around 10kms. at between 4 and 5% average, so not insignificant, but then it's downhill all the way to the finish which will really suit the power riders. Only riders motivated by a shot at the podium or a high overall position are likely to give it their best.
Unless he feels unwell, or has a mishap, Tony Martin will win the stage. There are just a few other specialists in the field, namely Cancellara, Malori and Rohan Dennis, and not all have shown their best form so far.. Very close to them is Chris Froome, and this stage is really all about how much time Froome can take off the other main contenders for the overall lead.
Tony Martin will be long odds on for the win here. I shall watch the contest with interest as we start to see who keeps their challenge together for the overall.
Unless he feels unwell, or has a mishap, Tony Martin will win the stage. There are just a few other specialists in the field, namely Cancellara, Malori and Rohan Dennis, and not all have shown their best form so far.. Very close to them is Chris Froome, and this stage is really all about how much time Froome can take off the other main contenders for the overall lead.
Tony Martin will be long odds on for the win here. I shall watch the contest with interest as we start to see who keeps their challenge together for the overall.
Well Tony Martin won the time trial just as expected, but the drama lay elsewhere, with Nairo Quintana, the leader at the beginning of the day, taking a spectacular fall from his bike and trailing in over 3 minutes behind his main rivals.
Chris Froome, although he didn't perform badly, was quite a bit down on his top form and now sits 1min 18secs behind Contador, with Valverdi sitting at 27 secs down in second place, Rigoberto Uran moving into 3rd with an excellent performance.
The race is about to move into predominantly mountainous terrain, and things can change dramatically if any rider has a bad day. The make up of stages will change too as Quintana decides whether to target stage wins or to support Valverde. The seconds bonus on the line could be crucial, meaning that stages which looked to be available to breakaway riders now might be targeted by the race favorites. Worth bearing in mind that both Froome, and moreso Contador, are recovering from quite serious injury. We also don't know how Quintana feels either following his somersault onto the tarmac. This race is anything but over, there are enough riders still close enough to challenge, and others with something to prove. It's going to get tough, and it's going to be fun to watch.
Stage 11 preview coming soon.
Chris Froome, although he didn't perform badly, was quite a bit down on his top form and now sits 1min 18secs behind Contador, with Valverdi sitting at 27 secs down in second place, Rigoberto Uran moving into 3rd with an excellent performance.
The race is about to move into predominantly mountainous terrain, and things can change dramatically if any rider has a bad day. The make up of stages will change too as Quintana decides whether to target stage wins or to support Valverde. The seconds bonus on the line could be crucial, meaning that stages which looked to be available to breakaway riders now might be targeted by the race favorites. Worth bearing in mind that both Froome, and moreso Contador, are recovering from quite serious injury. We also don't know how Quintana feels either following his somersault onto the tarmac. This race is anything but over, there are enough riders still close enough to challenge, and others with something to prove. It's going to get tough, and it's going to be fun to watch.
Stage 11 preview coming soon.
Stage 11 has all the hallmarks of a stage perfect for the breakaway contenders. Most of the G.C. men would welcome a chance to tap a rythm throughout the first 100 km or so and have a skirmish on the final climb, and between themselves. However it only takes one rider to have a different idea and all that goes up in smoke. The breakaway can only succeed if it's allowed to.
The fight to get into the break will be frantic. The peleton won't want to let anyone escape until they're sure who they are, and then some teams will wish to make sure they are represented. Eventually a breakaway will be established, and if it's big enough and strong enough it may last out on this fairly short, just over 156 km. stage, with the two climbs coming right at the end.
The stage will be won by a strong rider and a good climber, and I can't decide whether I favour a breakaway rider or not. For me it's not really a day for betting. The guys mentioned previously are always likely to try to get away, but there are so many in the same boat.
Team Sky might also send Deignan or Kyrienka up the road, and both are capable. I think my personal fancy to win from a break is Arredondo. If it comes back to the Peleton then we'll soon know who's feeling good enough to win this Vuelta.
The fight to get into the break will be frantic. The peleton won't want to let anyone escape until they're sure who they are, and then some teams will wish to make sure they are represented. Eventually a breakaway will be established, and if it's big enough and strong enough it may last out on this fairly short, just over 156 km. stage, with the two climbs coming right at the end.
The stage will be won by a strong rider and a good climber, and I can't decide whether I favour a breakaway rider or not. For me it's not really a day for betting. The guys mentioned previously are always likely to try to get away, but there are so many in the same boat.
Team Sky might also send Deignan or Kyrienka up the road, and both are capable. I think my personal fancy to win from a break is Arredondo. If it comes back to the Peleton then we'll soon know who's feeling good enough to win this Vuelta.
Nairo Quintana is out of the race following another crash today in which he suffered further injury.
The race leaders should have a day of respite, just concentrating upon staying safe in the peleton.
Stage 12 is a criterium course, completing 8 laps of of the town and undoubtedly finishing in a bunch sprint. Unless it gets wet, and I haven't heard anything, it should pretty much be finishing in a bunch sprint, and that would seem to be a penalty kick for Bouhanni.
As a point of interest, the same course was used in 2012, where John Dagenkolb won from the bunch, with a young Bouhanni back in 5th place. That was possibly Dagenkolb's most impressive finish in a stage race.
However times change, Bouhanni's too fast for anyone in the peleton, he just needs a clear run at it.
The race leaders should have a day of respite, just concentrating upon staying safe in the peleton.
Stage 12 is a criterium course, completing 8 laps of of the town and undoubtedly finishing in a bunch sprint. Unless it gets wet, and I haven't heard anything, it should pretty much be finishing in a bunch sprint, and that would seem to be a penalty kick for Bouhanni.
As a point of interest, the same course was used in 2012, where John Dagenkolb won from the bunch, with a young Bouhanni back in 5th place. That was possibly Dagenkolb's most impressive finish in a stage race.
However times change, Bouhanni's too fast for anyone in the peleton, he just needs a clear run at it.
Well Bouhanni's penalty kick went against him as his entire team, along with most of the field, were stuck behind a crash inside the last half mile of stage 12. Dagenkolb was in the right place and went on to take a comfortable victory.
Stage 13 promises to be a really exciting affair, with oodles of possible scenarios, not least of all the breakaway, with the usual suspects having a go, and possibly worth a small wager at huge odds. There are a couple of climbs, not too steep, but not insignificant, and the late one should rule out the pure sprinters. Downhill then all the way too a tricky finish with a quite significant ramp, for almost half a mile, and taking them inside the final 2km. There might be some rain towards the end of the stage; if the roads are wet then the favs might well ease off and let the breakaway have their fun.
Whereas the race leaders might welcome an easy day, and allow the break to stay away, BMC, and possibly Orica too, would like to present Gilbert and Mathews respectively, with the chance to win the stage. Gilbert is particularly suited to this finish and is my choice for the win. Of course if the peleton is brought back into contention then Dan Martin and Valverde are going to give it a shot as well. This promises to be one of the most exciting stages of the race.
Stage 13 promises to be a really exciting affair, with oodles of possible scenarios, not least of all the breakaway, with the usual suspects having a go, and possibly worth a small wager at huge odds. There are a couple of climbs, not too steep, but not insignificant, and the late one should rule out the pure sprinters. Downhill then all the way too a tricky finish with a quite significant ramp, for almost half a mile, and taking them inside the final 2km. There might be some rain towards the end of the stage; if the roads are wet then the favs might well ease off and let the breakaway have their fun.
Whereas the race leaders might welcome an easy day, and allow the break to stay away, BMC, and possibly Orica too, would like to present Gilbert and Mathews respectively, with the chance to win the stage. Gilbert is particularly suited to this finish and is my choice for the win. Of course if the peleton is brought back into contention then Dan Martin and Valverde are going to give it a shot as well. This promises to be one of the most exciting stages of the race.
Well the final lump in the road, somewhat steeper than billed, was too much for Phillipe Gilbert,(he said so himself) and the stage was taken in excellent style by Danny Navarro, who was sufficiently let of the leash as the climbers dominated the finale. I thought Katusha looked the strongest team and once again slightly misjudged the finish.
Stage 14 is yet another summit finish, and the first of three consecutive days in the mountains. There are three categorized climbs, the first a cat.2, followed by two cat.1's, peaking at approx. 78, 130 and 200km's respectively.
Such a stage is rarely won by the breakaway, but it won't stop them from trying. The winner of this stage is almost certainly going to be a very good climber, otherwise only a very strong rider being allowed a very big lead could hold out up these long and arduous climbs.
If Arredondo were to get 3+ minutes start onto the final climb, he would be one who could hold on.
Ordinarily the race favorite would be laying down his marker on a day like this, but I feel there's a lot more going on here than is usual. Contador doesn't have the best support on this occasion; when he gets into the serious climbs he's very quickly on his own, which, unless he's at 100%, leaves him vulnerable enough to remain cautious. The Moviestar team, who was expected to be throwing down the gauntlet, find themselves two men down, and are also likely to remain cautious and rely upon opportunistic attacks and Valverde's speed on the line rather than trying to beat rivals into submission. Team Sky look strong as a whole, however we can't help but notice that Froome is just a tad short of his best form so far, that could change.
That leaves Astana, who seem to be going fairly well, with young Aru always prepared to have a go, but I don't expect a team attack this early, bearing in mind the youth of the team's adopted leader.
Then there's Katusha, going extremely well as a squad, and with a serious challenger for the podium in Rodriguez. His friend and colleague Danny Moreno is well capable of attacking on steep gradients, and between them they could hold the key to this stage. We may not find out in stage 14 who will win the Vuelta, but we might well discover who won't.
I haven't seen any betting for this stage yet, but I expect Rodriguez or Moreno to win here, but don't expect big odds. I'll probably have half a crown on Arredondo, in the hope that he makes the breakaway, and he'll be 40/1 or better.
Enjoy the spectacle.
Stage 14 is yet another summit finish, and the first of three consecutive days in the mountains. There are three categorized climbs, the first a cat.2, followed by two cat.1's, peaking at approx. 78, 130 and 200km's respectively.
Such a stage is rarely won by the breakaway, but it won't stop them from trying. The winner of this stage is almost certainly going to be a very good climber, otherwise only a very strong rider being allowed a very big lead could hold out up these long and arduous climbs.
If Arredondo were to get 3+ minutes start onto the final climb, he would be one who could hold on.
Ordinarily the race favorite would be laying down his marker on a day like this, but I feel there's a lot more going on here than is usual. Contador doesn't have the best support on this occasion; when he gets into the serious climbs he's very quickly on his own, which, unless he's at 100%, leaves him vulnerable enough to remain cautious. The Moviestar team, who was expected to be throwing down the gauntlet, find themselves two men down, and are also likely to remain cautious and rely upon opportunistic attacks and Valverde's speed on the line rather than trying to beat rivals into submission. Team Sky look strong as a whole, however we can't help but notice that Froome is just a tad short of his best form so far, that could change.
That leaves Astana, who seem to be going fairly well, with young Aru always prepared to have a go, but I don't expect a team attack this early, bearing in mind the youth of the team's adopted leader.
Then there's Katusha, going extremely well as a squad, and with a serious challenger for the podium in Rodriguez. His friend and colleague Danny Moreno is well capable of attacking on steep gradients, and between them they could hold the key to this stage. We may not find out in stage 14 who will win the Vuelta, but we might well discover who won't.
I haven't seen any betting for this stage yet, but I expect Rodriguez or Moreno to win here, but don't expect big odds. I'll probably have half a crown on Arredondo, in the hope that he makes the breakaway, and he'll be 40/1 or better.
Enjoy the spectacle.
Another summit finish on stage 15, after Ryder Hesjedal's win from the break on stage 14.
Expect another big break attempt on stage 15, but, with two intermediate sprints before the climbing starts, it might be even more difficult for the break to materialize; it really comes down to personal and team ambitions.
I expect Cofidis to take a front seat in proceedings here. Nerz has been riding well, and Danny Navarro, a local man, might also be well suited to the finish here. As I suggested earlier too, Christophe Le Mevel will likely target one of these finishes, but it would have to be from the break.
There is no doubting that this finish is best suited to the riders at the head of the race, and if the break is kept in check the favorites will fight it out for the win. As we saw a couple of days ago a rider who doesn't threaten the podium positions can be allowed to ride away, to some degree, and perhaps take the win. A rider like Warren Barguil fits that description, and he's certainly riding strongly at the moment.
Rain is forecast, and the decent to the final climb is quite tricky, so expect some nervous riders and some daredevil attacks too. Cunego, as well as Sammy Sanchez, have been known to excel on tricky downhill sections when others were being cautious.
Once again the finish is perfect for Rodriguez, but he's yet to show his best form. Maybe today will be the day.
As far as having a wager is concerned, I'd advise keeping stakes small, too many if's involved. I kind of pick a likely breakaway candidate at big odds to a very small stake and hope to get in the break of the day. If you ask me who I think will win today I'm going to say Rodriguez again, he'll get it right one of these days.
Expect another big break attempt on stage 15, but, with two intermediate sprints before the climbing starts, it might be even more difficult for the break to materialize; it really comes down to personal and team ambitions.
I expect Cofidis to take a front seat in proceedings here. Nerz has been riding well, and Danny Navarro, a local man, might also be well suited to the finish here. As I suggested earlier too, Christophe Le Mevel will likely target one of these finishes, but it would have to be from the break.
There is no doubting that this finish is best suited to the riders at the head of the race, and if the break is kept in check the favorites will fight it out for the win. As we saw a couple of days ago a rider who doesn't threaten the podium positions can be allowed to ride away, to some degree, and perhaps take the win. A rider like Warren Barguil fits that description, and he's certainly riding strongly at the moment.
Rain is forecast, and the decent to the final climb is quite tricky, so expect some nervous riders and some daredevil attacks too. Cunego, as well as Sammy Sanchez, have been known to excel on tricky downhill sections when others were being cautious.
Once again the finish is perfect for Rodriguez, but he's yet to show his best form. Maybe today will be the day.
As far as having a wager is concerned, I'd advise keeping stakes small, too many if's involved. I kind of pick a likely breakaway candidate at big odds to a very small stake and hope to get in the break of the day. If you ask me who I think will win today I'm going to say Rodriguez again, he'll get it right one of these days.
Well Niemiec, riding with the breakaway, managed to hold out for a worthy victory on stage 15. Worth noting that he had over 4 minutes to spare at the 10km's to go banner and won by 5 seconds. Nevertheless he didn't have a lot of assistance on the climbs, unlike the chasers.
Stage 16 is a serious day for the climbers, and for half the field it'll be just about survival. From 10km's into the day they begin a cat.1 climb, then there's downhill to the only level part of the day, with a cat.2 coming up, followed by no less than 3 more cat.1's, including the summit finish.
There will be a breakaway, but I don't expect it to get a huge lead, and I doubt it would have enough in form climbers in it to take it all the way. The only chance of the early break making it to line is if the weather is atrocious and forces the favorites to be over cautious.
The winner is expected to come from the main group, so only one of the race favorites or someone capable of riding with them when they pile on the pressure. Many of the riders who would have a chance are riding in support of their team leader, and will therefore have burned themselves out by the finish. Once again this finish, on top of all these climbs seems to suit Rodriguez, and He's my selection for the win. A fully fit Chris Froome would have put rivals to the sword on a day like this, but he's just not quite there yet. Contador too should enjoy such a stage, but he's also showing signs of weakness, hardly surprising given the nature of his injuries just a few weeks back. Both might recover and find their form for the final week of the race, but I would rather oppose them on a daily basis until I see something closer to their best.
Barguil remains strong and is looking to attack, and so is Aru, but I think he's too close to the lead now and won't be allowed to ride away unchallenged. Dan Martin didn't have his best day today, but he remains capable, he has a good kick in him, and he's far enough off the lead to be allowed to go.
Arredondo is out of the race.
So at the risk of becoming boring and predictable, not to mention incorrect, I'm tipping "Purito" Rodriguez to finally take a stage win and to throw the contest for the overall wide open.
Stage 16 is a serious day for the climbers, and for half the field it'll be just about survival. From 10km's into the day they begin a cat.1 climb, then there's downhill to the only level part of the day, with a cat.2 coming up, followed by no less than 3 more cat.1's, including the summit finish.
There will be a breakaway, but I don't expect it to get a huge lead, and I doubt it would have enough in form climbers in it to take it all the way. The only chance of the early break making it to line is if the weather is atrocious and forces the favorites to be over cautious.
The winner is expected to come from the main group, so only one of the race favorites or someone capable of riding with them when they pile on the pressure. Many of the riders who would have a chance are riding in support of their team leader, and will therefore have burned themselves out by the finish. Once again this finish, on top of all these climbs seems to suit Rodriguez, and He's my selection for the win. A fully fit Chris Froome would have put rivals to the sword on a day like this, but he's just not quite there yet. Contador too should enjoy such a stage, but he's also showing signs of weakness, hardly surprising given the nature of his injuries just a few weeks back. Both might recover and find their form for the final week of the race, but I would rather oppose them on a daily basis until I see something closer to their best.
Barguil remains strong and is looking to attack, and so is Aru, but I think he's too close to the lead now and won't be allowed to ride away unchallenged. Dan Martin didn't have his best day today, but he remains capable, he has a good kick in him, and he's far enough off the lead to be allowed to go.
Arredondo is out of the race.
So at the risk of becoming boring and predictable, not to mention incorrect, I'm tipping "Purito" Rodriguez to finally take a stage win and to throw the contest for the overall wide open.
Well thank goodness for a rest day, I'm exhausted, as well as exasperated, and of course as we all knew it would, the cream has risen to the top. Froome, with the able assistance of his team, totally blew the opposition apart, with the exception of race leader Alberto Contador, who, just as Froome did, dispelled any doubts about his fitness and duly forged clear to win the stage and take a convincing lead overall. Valverde is riding true to his form and continues to be just too fast for Rodriguez at the finish. It seems that Rodriguez, who might have appeared as the main beneficiary when Quintana crashed out, would now need someone to under perform in the final week if he's to make the podium. It's been a very exciting week in Spain. Perhaps we'll be able to pick a stage winner in the days ahead. 
Sexlightened
I'm quite intrigued by this new sport of 'boxing on a bike' - when was that introduced??It's certainly going to make things more interesting in future and I expect the role of the domestique will have to change somewhat!
But seriously, they should make an example of those guys as road racing is dangerous enough as it is. What do you think?
But seriously, they should make an example of those guys as road racing is dangerous enough as it is. What do you think?
I think the ejection of the two riders who exchanged blows was the right thing to do, and we now need to see consistency in dealing with such incidents. Clearly no real harm was done here, but there is the potential to cause serious injury to themselves or anyone in the vicinity, and to alter the result of a race. There will no doubt be more punishment meted out. If I hear something I'll add a snippet.
The final week of the Vuelta, and it begins with the final designated sprint stage, which means that the teams of those sprinters who remain in the race will keep a tight check on any breakaway. The finish is fairly flat but quite technical too. The weather forecast is reasonable, and there will be a breakaway, and there are a few lumps in the final 10km's, so someone will no doubt launch an attack, but it's difficult to see it not being kept under control and finishing in a bunch sprint.
Dagenkolb is now the fastest man left in the peleton, since both Bouhanni and Sagan decided to give the tough mountain stages a miss, and have retired from the race. Dagenkolb will be at odds on to win, he also happens to have the best leadout train in the field.
Michael Mathews will also be competitive and, like Dagenkolb, he suffers less in the mountain stages than most sprinters do.
It's been quite some time since Tom Boonen was challenging for top honours in a bunch sprint at this level, and I don't think he's quite fast enough, but he has looked both strong and competetive throughout this tour.
Unless there are the not unfamiliar crashes in the finale, the finish should concern the favorites. None of the riders will have improved over the past tough days, so it's really just guesswork as to who might be up to challenging the obvious contenders.
I'm not totally sure how technical the finish is, nor how up and down the preceding 6 or 7km's are; I mention this because Cancellara's looking like he's nearing prime condition and, as mentioned before, he's capable of going away from the bunch and maintaining a very fast pace all the way to the line. That would be fun to watch.(doesn't happen often)
Dagenkolb is now the fastest man left in the peleton, since both Bouhanni and Sagan decided to give the tough mountain stages a miss, and have retired from the race. Dagenkolb will be at odds on to win, he also happens to have the best leadout train in the field.
Michael Mathews will also be competitive and, like Dagenkolb, he suffers less in the mountain stages than most sprinters do.
It's been quite some time since Tom Boonen was challenging for top honours in a bunch sprint at this level, and I don't think he's quite fast enough, but he has looked both strong and competetive throughout this tour.
Unless there are the not unfamiliar crashes in the finale, the finish should concern the favorites. None of the riders will have improved over the past tough days, so it's really just guesswork as to who might be up to challenging the obvious contenders.
I'm not totally sure how technical the finish is, nor how up and down the preceding 6 or 7km's are; I mention this because Cancellara's looking like he's nearing prime condition and, as mentioned before, he's capable of going away from the bunch and maintaining a very fast pace all the way to the line. That would be fun to watch.(doesn't happen often)
Please read as a follow on to that above.
Two pieces of information have been presented to me since I wrote the first preview of this stage.
Contrary to BBC weather's prediction, there is some belief that it may rain, which would probably mean wind too, during stage 17.
More importantly, from 25km's to go there are hills which will count, some steep enough to break up the sprint lead outs, and certainly enough to sap energy. There is also a paved section,(a modern pave, but again energy sapping) and slightly uphill leading to the final 2km.
I still don't expect the breakaway to be given enough of a lead to make it, but riders like Jungels and Lutsenko are very strong, and capable of pushing to the finish. A more likely scenario is that punchy riders like Philippe Gilbert and Cancellara, (there are others), will make a strong late attack which would have a chance of success. Paul Martens could also be competetive sprinting from a reduced bunch. I hasten to point out that Dagenkolb, and Mathews too, are capable of chasing such attacks if they select that option. It's a spur of the moment decision for them.
Two pieces of information have been presented to me since I wrote the first preview of this stage.
Contrary to BBC weather's prediction, there is some belief that it may rain, which would probably mean wind too, during stage 17.
More importantly, from 25km's to go there are hills which will count, some steep enough to break up the sprint lead outs, and certainly enough to sap energy. There is also a paved section,(a modern pave, but again energy sapping) and slightly uphill leading to the final 2km.
I still don't expect the breakaway to be given enough of a lead to make it, but riders like Jungels and Lutsenko are very strong, and capable of pushing to the finish. A more likely scenario is that punchy riders like Philippe Gilbert and Cancellara, (there are others), will make a strong late attack which would have a chance of success. Paul Martens could also be competetive sprinting from a reduced bunch. I hasten to point out that Dagenkolb, and Mathews too, are capable of chasing such attacks if they select that option. It's a spur of the moment decision for them.
Stage 17 pretty much followed the script, with Dagenkolb winning from Mathews and Cancellara. I was slightly disappointed that Cancellara didn't launch a bid for glory from further out; it seemed that his intention was to lead their other sprinter to the finish, but ended up being much the stronger.
On to stage 18, and this stage would be perfect for a breakaway but for two factors, namely Rodriguez, who is anxious to take a stage win, and Valverde who wants bonus seconds for a win. Contador will just mark his opposition, he's quite happy for the "also rans" to go out and take the stage and all the bonuses.
The stage is relatively short, just over 156km's, and fairly flat for the Vuelta, with just two cat.2 climbs (it's actually the same hill twice), coming right at the end from around 30km out, and summit finish. The last few km's of the 7km climb are around 5-6%, until the last half mile which is flat or slightly downhill. I can't see Valverde being distanced on such a climb, and therefore I make him the likely winner from the main bunch.
It's never that easy in the Vuelta, there'll be some serious contenders for the breakaway. There may even be some of the top riders in a group, those just far enough off the podium.
I like the guys I've mentioned before, Lutsenko, Le Mevel and De Marchi, all capable of going solo from a strong breakaway, but I think Valverde will have it covered this time.
Things are further muddied by the increased likelihood of wind and some rain.
It should be an entertaining finale when the Eurosport coverage begins.
On to stage 18, and this stage would be perfect for a breakaway but for two factors, namely Rodriguez, who is anxious to take a stage win, and Valverde who wants bonus seconds for a win. Contador will just mark his opposition, he's quite happy for the "also rans" to go out and take the stage and all the bonuses.
The stage is relatively short, just over 156km's, and fairly flat for the Vuelta, with just two cat.2 climbs (it's actually the same hill twice), coming right at the end from around 30km out, and summit finish. The last few km's of the 7km climb are around 5-6%, until the last half mile which is flat or slightly downhill. I can't see Valverde being distanced on such a climb, and therefore I make him the likely winner from the main bunch.
It's never that easy in the Vuelta, there'll be some serious contenders for the breakaway. There may even be some of the top riders in a group, those just far enough off the podium.
I like the guys I've mentioned before, Lutsenko, Le Mevel and De Marchi, all capable of going solo from a strong breakaway, but I think Valverde will have it covered this time.
Things are further muddied by the increased likelihood of wind and some rain.
It should be an entertaining finale when the Eurosport coverage begins.
stage 18 resulted in a well deserved win for young Aru, and saw Chris Froome show something approaching his best form to move into second place in the stage and in the overall standings. As predicted Contador just marked his opposition and sat on a fairly comfortable advantage. It is poised for a serious battle between the two leaders on Saturday.
Stage 19 should have been a transition day, with the peleton having a sunday bike ride and the breakaway contesting the stage win. That still might happen, the wet weather which has been anticipated over the past few days is said to be here for stage 19. Any treacherous conditions will see the leaders exercise caution, although I have no information which says the downhill sections are particularly difficult.
The bookmakers have Mathews as favorite, being that there are just two cat. 2 climbs, the second coming some 15 km. from the finish. What will prevent Mathews from winning is the fact that Valverde wants the time bonuses at the finish, 10 seconds here would take him back to within 3 seconds of Froome. If the climbers set a fast pace up the final climb then I can't see Mathews staying in touch, then with a bunch of climbers going to the finish, dare I repeat myself? None of the climbers can outsprint Valverde.
Nevertheless, not only do the breakaway have a chance, there will be riders looking to get a jump on the pack with late attacks, so timing is everything. Expect Orica to try to keep the break in check, together with Moviestar, so it will be difficult for the break. A strong rider having an advantage over the final climb would have a chance of holding on.
I shall tip Valverde and Moviestar to get it done this time, although I will be looking for some big odds for the breakaway contenders, the usual suspects, and add a bit of Rohan Dennis perhaps, he looked very strong the other day. Of course he's now one of the favorites for stage 21, so he may save himself for that.
Stage 19 should have been a transition day, with the peleton having a sunday bike ride and the breakaway contesting the stage win. That still might happen, the wet weather which has been anticipated over the past few days is said to be here for stage 19. Any treacherous conditions will see the leaders exercise caution, although I have no information which says the downhill sections are particularly difficult.
The bookmakers have Mathews as favorite, being that there are just two cat. 2 climbs, the second coming some 15 km. from the finish. What will prevent Mathews from winning is the fact that Valverde wants the time bonuses at the finish, 10 seconds here would take him back to within 3 seconds of Froome. If the climbers set a fast pace up the final climb then I can't see Mathews staying in touch, then with a bunch of climbers going to the finish, dare I repeat myself? None of the climbers can outsprint Valverde.
Nevertheless, not only do the breakaway have a chance, there will be riders looking to get a jump on the pack with late attacks, so timing is everything. Expect Orica to try to keep the break in check, together with Moviestar, so it will be difficult for the break. A strong rider having an advantage over the final climb would have a chance of holding on.
I shall tip Valverde and Moviestar to get it done this time, although I will be looking for some big odds for the breakaway contenders, the usual suspects, and add a bit of Rohan Dennis perhaps, he looked very strong the other day. Of course he's now one of the favorites for stage 21, so he may save himself for that.
