The last 10 years has seen huge global shifts of economic power and wealth and most economists expect similar changes in the future.
I think it is more important than ever to try and predict trends and plan accordingly. We can all make small changes to minimize the impact.
The British state is not too good at adapting to changes quickly. Our school language departments for eaxample are still focusing on teaching teaching French when graduate recruitment is already heading toward China.
In a changing world, past performance is less useful for decision making.
Oil and other commodity prices look set to rise significantly, oil probably at least doubling (at today's prices) over the next 20 years. I struggle to see British domestic property providing the sort of investment returns that have made the baby-boomer generation so wealthy. It is worrying that Baby boomers are encouraging their children to buy UK property when the future UK property market is in a completely different place to the 'property owning democracy' of the 1980s
The Uk is stll suffering negative GDP growth yet some emerging market economies are enjoying 8 to 10% growth and this opposite moverment looks set to continue as the UK lurches toward stagflation and interest rate rises.
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4abitafun
Over 90 days ago
Straight Male, 57
0 miles · Greater Manchester
Forum
Forum Virgin
Staying around Belfast this week, any couples/fems offering some Irish hospitality (not accomodation, just a bit of cheeky fun ) would be very welcome.
Alternatily, please reply with any local knowledge that may be useful.
I'm very new to this, am happy to take direction, and all advice welcome.
Alternatily, please reply with any local knowledge that may be useful.
I'm very new to this, am happy to take direction, and all advice welcome.
Forum Virgin
I was working in Ireland immediately before the credit crunch and was struck by the obvious signs that the economy was overheating and the brakes needed to be applied.
Over the coming weeks, keep an eye on the price of Spanish gilts. I beleive there to be a very strong chance that the money markets will lose confidence in Spain's economy and the price of government paper will plummet.
Why is this likely, and why is this different to reland and Greece ?
The big difference in a Spanish crisis is the size of the economy. Ireland and Greece are small economies, and are easier to rescue.
The ECB will struggle to bail out a big economy like Spain (the IMF will begin to look more reluctant as well). And the irony is that this is likely to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, ie the money markets know the difficulty to rescue such a big economy and so this in itself adds risk to holding Spanish debt.
The outcome?
The stronger economies of Germany and France are not going to let the Euro die. I foresee the Euro split into A and B, or even Euro A,B,C, for the different economies. Each Euro layer will be able to set interest rates, and so avoid the current problems of the Irish, ie not being able to devalue out of the crisis like we have.
This is going to happen over the coming weeks ... watch this space !
Over the coming weeks, keep an eye on the price of Spanish gilts. I beleive there to be a very strong chance that the money markets will lose confidence in Spain's economy and the price of government paper will plummet.
Why is this likely, and why is this different to reland and Greece ?
The big difference in a Spanish crisis is the size of the economy. Ireland and Greece are small economies, and are easier to rescue.
The ECB will struggle to bail out a big economy like Spain (the IMF will begin to look more reluctant as well). And the irony is that this is likely to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, ie the money markets know the difficulty to rescue such a big economy and so this in itself adds risk to holding Spanish debt.
The outcome?
The stronger economies of Germany and France are not going to let the Euro die. I foresee the Euro split into A and B, or even Euro A,B,C, for the different economies. Each Euro layer will be able to set interest rates, and so avoid the current problems of the Irish, ie not being able to devalue out of the crisis like we have.
This is going to happen over the coming weeks ... watch this space !
Forum Virgin
I spend a lot of time in Belfast and would be happy to meet up.
I love your ad on your profile and I would be happy to oblige your wife's requirements.
I may not be huge but I am perfectly formed so hopefully I can pass your size test. Why not take a closer look and then decide
I'm pretty flexible times places etc at your convenience so drop me a note ...
I love your ad on your profile and I would be happy to oblige your wife's requirements.
I may not be huge but I am perfectly formed so hopefully I can pass your size test. Why not take a closer look and then decide
I'm pretty flexible times places etc at your convenience so drop me a note ...
